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Joaquim Ramos SILVA, p. 55-89
Les relations �conomiques luso-br�siliennes au temps de la
mondialisation
Lors des ann�es 1990 on a assist� � une nette r�surgence des relations �conomiques
luso-br�siliennes.
Les flux principaux : commerce de biens et services, les revenus de capitaux, les
transferts unilat�raux et l’investissement direct. Ainsi, apr�s une longue p�riode
de d�clin depuis les ann�es 1920 correspondant pour l’essentiel, � la fermeture
des deux �conomies, les perspectives des relations �conomiques bilat�rales ont
compl�tement chang� au cours de la derni�re d�cennie. De plus, il s’agit non
seulement d’un changement quantitatif, mais aussi qualitatif, comme le montre le
r�le primordial de l’investissement direct pendant la p�riode r�cente. Tout cela
est d’autant plus remarquable qu’il n’y a aucun accord de commerce
pr�f�rentiel formel en vigueur entre les deux pays.
Au-del� d’autres causes comme la stabilisation macro-�conomique, il semble que
l’existence d’une plus libre circulation � l’�chelle mondiale (y compris,
bien s�r, r�gionale avec l’Union europ�enne et le Mercosul), notamment au niveau
des biens et capitaux, processus auquel les deux �conomies ont particip� r�solument, a
dop� le d�veloppement des relations bilat�rales. Autrement dit, il semble que cela est
susceptible de mettre en valeur certains facteurs communs, tels que la langue ou
l’histoire. Il serait �videmment pr�matur� d’�tablir a priori la
soutenabilit� naturelle de cette �volution, mais si ces conditions g�n�rales se
maintiennent, les relations �conomiques luso-br�siliennes pourraient s’approfondir
et passer � des niveaux plus �lev�s.
As rela��es econ�micas luso-brasileiras no contexto da
globaliza��o
Durante os anos 1990, assistiu-se ao ressurgimento das rela��es
econ�micas luso-brasileiras.
Os principais fluxos : com�rcio de bens e servi�os, rendimentos de capitais,
transfer�ncias unilaterais e investimento directo participaram de uma maneira ou de
outra, neste refor�o. Depois de um longo per�odo de decl�nio desde os anos 1920, que
correspondeu no essencial a um maior fecho das duas economias (ainda que sob graus e
formas diferentes), as perspectivas das rela��es econ�micas bilaterais alteraram-se
completamente no decurso da �ltima d�cada. Mais, n�o se trata apenas de uma simples
mudan�a quantitativa, mas tamb�m qualitativa, como mostra ali�s o papel central
desempenhado pelo investimento directo no per�odo recente. Tudo isto � tanto mais
not�vel quanto n�o existe qualquer acordo de com�rcio preferencial formal em vigor
entre os dois pa�ses.
Para al�m de outras raz�es (a estabiliza��o macroecon�mica por exemplo), parece que a
exist�ncia de uma mais livre circula��o � escala mundial (bem como, seguramente, �
regional com a Uni�o Europeia e o Mercosul), em particular ao n�vel dos bens e capitais,
processo em que as duas economias t�m participado resolutamente, se mostra favor�vel ao
desenvolvimento das rela��es bilaterais. Ele parece tamb�m suscept�vel de valorizar
certos factores comuns como a l�ngua e a hist�ria. Seja como for, � prematuro concluir
que esta viragem nas rela��es econ�micas luso-brasileiras se sustentar� naturalmente a
si mesma, mas se aquelas condi��es gerais se mantiverem, elas poder�o aprofundar-se e
passar a n�veis superiores.
Luso-Brazilian Economic Relations in the Stage of Globalization
In the 1990s there was a strong revival of the luso-brazilian economic relations. The main
flows : trade of goods and services, capital revenue, unilateral transfers, and
direct investment, participated in a way or another, in this recovery. In fact, after a
long period of decline since the 1920s, which essentially also corresponded to the
sheltering of the two economies (obviously through different ways), the prospects of the
bilateral economic relations have completely changed throughout the last decade. Moreover,
it was not a mere quantitative change, but also qualitative, as the key role played by
direct investment in recent times plainly shows. This is remarkable so far there is no
preferential formal trade agreement in force between the two countries.
Beyond other reasons (a greater macroeconomic stability, for instance), it seems that the
existence of an increasing free movement at world scale (included, of course, the regional
scale within the European Union and the Mercosul), particularly at the goods and capitals
levels, process where the two economies have fully participated, is clearly favourable to
the development of bilateral relations. Otherwise, these circunstances highlight the
existing common factors as the language and history. Anyway, it is still too early to
establish the natural sustainability of this evolution, but, if the general conditions
stand, luso-brazilian economic relations can become stronger and reach higher levels. |